The economic activity has demonstrated a moderation in its growth during 2018, showing the evolution of the trimestral Gross Domestic Product (GDP), to March an economic growth is expected for the 2018-2019 biennium, locating it in 3.6% – 4.0% (BCH, 2018).
In October 31st, 2017, The International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated under the Fifth and Sixth Reviews Under SBA with Honduras, through Mr. Zhang, Acting Chair and Deputy Managing Director: “The authorities’ commitment to their reform agenda has remained strong during the program, which has successfully stabilized the economy, restored confidence, and paved the way for accelerating growth and reducing poverty. The program is on track and reforms are progressing as expected.
The Honduran economy grew 3.1% at the closure of the first trimester of 2018, according to the seasonally adjusted series of the GDP, influenced by the moderate increase in consumption and investment of the private sector, as well as exportations. Because of the focus of the offer, among the economic activities that stand out that have demonstrated major contribution, Financial Intermediation, insurance and funds; manufacturing industry; Commerce; Transportation and Storage; and Agriculture, cattle raising, forestry and fishing (BCH, 2018).
Annual GDP Growth:
Macroeconomic Results 2017-2018
Monetary Program July 2017
In 2017, the inflation rate was of a 4.7% and with this, the target established by the Monetary Program is achieved.
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
Since 2015, Honduras has received more than US$ 3.6 billion from foreign investment, displaying the country’s significant levels of confidence accomplished in national and international investors (BCH, Economic Studies Deputy Manager, 2017).
By the end of the first semester of 2018, the Honduran economy attracted a flow of Foreign Direct Investment of US$619.9 millions, increasing in 5.8% when comparing it with the same period of 2017. The principal source of external financing in this variable where the reinvested utilities. From the origin of investment, it was observed that the major part came from North America, with 37.6% of the total, followed by Europe with 20.3%. While for economic activity the capitals oriented to Maquila (35.9%), Services (23.9%), and Transportation, Storage and Telecommunications (15.7%), stand out” (BCH,Flujos de Inversión Extranjera Directa, 2018).
At the end of the fourth quarter of 2016, economic activity-related inflows were as follows:
The Services activity was the most predominant in 2016, with FDI inflows of US$ 404.9 million, US$ 20.5 million higher than those obtained in 2015, mainly associated with the higher profits reinvested and increases in shares and equity investments of institutions responsible for financial intermediation.
Consequently, Transportation, Warehousing and Telecommunications followed with investments of US$ 240.5 million, US$ 8.7 million more than those collected at the end of 2015; in particular by the communication companies profit reinvestment. Third, the Manufacturing Industry registered resources of US$ 203.5 million, US$ 3.8 million more than reported in December of the previous year, due to profit reinvestments made by companies engaged in beverage and cement manufacturing.
FDI per Economic Activity
OUR HUMAN CAPITAL
Honduras has a total population of 8, 721.0 million people (2016), with a 1.7% relative growth rate per year. Our economically active population is 3.6 million (45%). (Central Bank of Honduras, 2016)
With a percentage distribution of 51.2% women and 48.8% men, it is estimated that by the year 2020 around 47% of the population will be in a range between 18 and 35 years of age. (National Institute of Statistics INE-Honduras, 2016)
Honduras 2020 Population Pyramid
Total Population Percentage
Total Population 9,304,380
Source: INE, Population Projections XVII Population Census and VI Housing 2013
Honduras has an important window of opportunities due to the demographic bonus. Since 2015, the economically active population is growing and acquiring a bigger potential.
The country has made great efforts to improve education indicators. Overall, there is a tendency for improvement, as illiteracy decreases, the population that culminates higher studies has increased. The number of professionals with higher education levels has been increasing since 2010, representing a 42.7% growth in five years. (Duriez, López, & Moncada, 2016)
In terms of national English Language education, the 2016-2017 academic year provided a total of 449 centers offering bilingual education with a student population of 67,391. Additionally, every year there are more educational centers offering French language education. (Secretary of Education, 2016)
The consulting firm Mckinsey estimates that every year there are more than 10,000 bilingual graduates in Honduras.
INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES
Regarding the use of information and communication technologies, mobile telephone lines reached a total of 7,717,200 subscribers at the end of this quarter, representing a total of 89 out of 100 Hondurans owning a mobile telephone line.
Landline and Mobile Users
By the end of this quarter, the number of landline internet subscribers reached a total of 208,326 and 1,649,891 in mobile internet, showing a growth in the previous quarter of 1.71% and 13.02% respectively.
According to data provided by INE (National Institute of Statistics), an increase in the number of 2,242,400 Internet users is estimated, showing a growth of 2.45% with respect to the previous quarter. (National Telecommunications Commission, CONATEL, 2016)
ECONOMIC AND PRODUCTIVE SECTORS
Honduras has one of the most dynamic economies in Central America, its GDP (at market price) reaches US$ 21,497 million. (Central Bank of Honduras, BCH, 2016)
The distribution of GDP according to the branch of economic activity by market price shows the importance of diverse sectors in the country, for instance, the remarkable 15% of the Manufacturing Industry and the enormous potential of a country rich in natural resources in key areas such as Agriculture, Livestock, Hunting, Forestry and fisheries.
Francisco Morazán and Cortés are the two centers of economic development, in which most of Honduran industries and services are concentrated. Puerto Cortés’ free zone in the north of the country and surroundings of San Pedro Sula, concentrate more than 60% of the GDP and 80% of the country’s textile activity. The other industrial focus of minor importance is the capital, Tegucigalpa. The areas of the coastal plains have a strong agricultural character (bananas and African palm) and coffee production concentrates in the central regions. (Diplomatic Information of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation of Spain Office, 2017)
The nominal exchange rate at the end of June 2017 showed an interannual variation of 2.88%, lower than that observed on the same date of the previous year (4.04%), standing at L23.4445 for US $ 1.00. However, during 2017 an accumulated variation of -0.25% has been recorded, contrary to that of the same period of 2016 (1.88%). This behavior was determined by the strengthening of the country’s external position, evidenced by a month-long coverage of goods and services imports higher than that anticipated by the BCH, as a result of higher inflows of foreign currency from family remittances, coffee exports, and the “Bono Soberano”. (Honduras Central Bank, 2017)
Since the 2008-2009 economic crisis, Honduras has experienced a moderate recovery, driven by public investment, exports and high foreign remittances. In 2016, the country grew 3.6 percent. (Office of Diplomatic Information of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation of Spain, 2017)
RATINGS (MAY 2017)
*The country risk rating granted by France is taken from the following communication from the Economy and Finance Ministry of the French Republic. (Direction Générale du Trésor, 2017)